Biomass resources and production potential

Biomass resources assessments
Biomass resources and potential are considerable. Estimations vary according to the calculation methodology and the assumptions made (e.g. land use patterns for food production, agricultural management systems, wood demand evolution, production technologies used, natural forest growth etc).  It is also common to distinguish several potentials:

• Theoretical potential: the theoretical maximum potential is limited by factors such as the physical or biological barriers that cannot be altered given the current state of science.
• Technical potential: the potential that is limited by the technology used and the natural circumstances.
• Economic potential: the technical potential that can be produced at economically profitable levels.
• Ecological potential: the potential that takes into account ecological criteria, e.g. loss of biodiversity or soil erosion.

World bioenergy potential
Bioenergy could in principle provide all the world’s energy requirements, but its real technical and economic potential is much lower. The WEC Survey of Energy Resources (2001) estimates that bioenergy could theoretically provide 2900 EJ/y, but that technical and economic factors limit its current practical potential to just 270 EJ/y.

The table below shows the potential and current use of bioenergy by region. Even with the current resource base, it is clear that the practical potential of bioenergy is much greater than its current exploitation. Obstacles to greater use of bioenergy include poor matching between demand and resources, and high costs compared to other energy sources. Projections by the WEC, WEA and IPCC estimate that by 2050 bioenergy could supply a maximum of 250–450 EJ/y, representing around a quarter of global final energy demand. This is consistent with the table below, which puts the technological potential of bioenergy at 30% of global energy demand.

Current technical potentials and biomass use compared to primary energy consumption (PEC) from fossil fuels & hydro

* In Asia the actual use of biomass is higher than the potential. The value for potential and actual use refer to sustainable use, indicating that in the case of Asia the actual use is not sustainable, i.e. it can not be sustained over a long period, due to e.g. limited land availability
Source: Kaltschmitt, 2001

Source: Kaltschmitt, 2001

Estimation of global conventional and biomass resources

Bioenergy Production Potential 2050

Click to enlarge the graph below to see the sustainable bioenergy production potential for the worlds regions under four scenarios by 2050.

This projection looks at the explicitly sustainable potential of bioenergy production, that is, the production of biofuels after all food, fuel, fiber and fodder needs for local populations and livestock are satisfied and without deforestation. It shows that in Africa bioenergy production may reach 350 EJy/ (exajoules/yr) under a high-tech scenario by 2050 (scenario 4), when populations have increased considerably. From the graph, of all global regions, Africa ranks first when it comes to the long-term sustainable bioenergy production potential.

Source of graph: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski (2004). A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht Universit.

(click to enlarge)

Bioenergy potential in the EU
EUBIA considers that the EU-27 technical potential would reach 200 Mtoe/year (8.4 EJ/year) in the short term (2020), doubling to 400 Mtoe/year by 2050. A recent study (BTG, 2004) found, for the EU-25 + Romania and Bulgaria, a 2020 availability potential for biofuels of 210 Mtoe/year. Detailed results by sector are given in the table below. These overall figures should be regarded as indicative; an inaccuracy in the range of ±10% is the result of assumptions on land use for energy crops.

Availability of bioenergy in Europe in 2000, 2010 and 2020 (Mtoe/yr)